Parliament voted on the Demands for Grants for the Ministry of Home Affairs on May 02, 2012. During the debate, MPs expressed concern over the status of police forces in different States of the country. They emphasised the need to augment the capability of police forces. Though ‘Police’ and ‘Public Order’ are State subjects, the union government provides assistance to States for strengthening their forces. For instance, the Ministry of Home Affairs has been implementing a non-plan scheme for ‘Modernization of Police Forces’ since 1969-70. Under the scheme assistance is provided in the form of grants-in-aid towards construction of secure police stations, outposts, for purchase of vehicles, equipment etc. (To know more about the scheme, see an earlier blog post on the issue.) At the all India level, the sanctioned strength of State Police equals 20.6 lakh personnel. Though there exist wide variations across States, at an average this amounts to 174 police personnel per lakh population. However, the actual ratio is much lower because of high vacancies in the police forces. At the aggregate level, 24% positions are vacant. The table below provides data on the strength of state police forces as in Jan, 2011
| State | Sanctioned strength | Sanctioned policemen/ lakh of population | Vacancy |
| Andhra Pradesh | 1,31,099 | 155 | 31% |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 11,955 | 966 | 42% |
| Assam | 62,149 | 200 | 12% |
| Bihar | 85,939 | 88 | 27% |
| Chhattisgarh | 50,869 | 207 | 18% |
| Goa | 6,108 | 348 | 16% |
| Gujarat | 87,877 | 151 | 27% |
| Haryana | 61,307 | 248 | 28% |
| Himachal Pradesh | 17,187 | 256 | 22% |
| Jammu & Kashmir | 77,464 | 575 | 6% |
| Jharkhand | 73,005 | 235 | 30% |
| Karnataka | 91,256 | 155 | 10% |
| Kerala | 49,394 | 141 | 7% |
| Madhya Pradesh | 83,524 | 115 | 9% |
| Maharashtra | 1,53,148 | 139 | 10% |
| Manipur | 31,081 | 1,147 | 26% |
| Meghalaya | 12,268 | 469 | 17% |
| Mizoram | 11,246 | 1,112 | 6% |
| Nagaland | 24,226 | 1,073 | 0% |
| Orissa | 53,291 | 130 | 18% |
| Punjab | 79,565 | 291 | 14% |
| Rajasthan | 79,554 | 118 | 11% |
| Sikkim | 5,421 | 886 | 27% |
| Tamil Nadu | 1,20,441 | 178 | 15% |
| Tripura | 44,310 | 1,224 | 17% |
| Uttar Pradesh | 3,68,260 | 184 | 59% |
| Uttarakhand | 20,775 | 211 | 24% |
| West Bengal | 72,998 | 81 | 18% |
| A&N Islands | 4,417 | 1,018 | 22% |
| Chandigarh | 7,873 | 695 | 22% |
| D&N Haveli | 325 | 114 | 13% |
| Daman & Diu | 281 | 140 | 6% |
| Delhi | 81,467 | 441 | 1% |
| Lakshadweep | 349 | 478 | 36% |
| Puducherry | 3,941 | 352 | 25% |
| All India | 20,64,370 | 174 | 24% |
Source: Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 90, 13th March, 2012 and Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 1042, March 20, 2012
By Rohit and Jhalak Some Rajya Sabha seats will be contested over the next year. The Presidential elections are also scheduled to be held in 2012. The recent assembly elections has implications for both these elections. The Presidential elections will depend on the strenght in the assemblies, in Lok Sabha and in Rajya Sabha (which could change over the next year). Implications for Rajya Sabha Elections The composition of Rajya Sabha may undergo some changes. A total of 12 Rajya Sabha seats are up for election in 2011. This includes 6 seats from West Bengal, 3 from Gujarat and 1 each from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Another 65 seats, across 18 states, go for elections in early 2012. The largest chunk of these seats comes from UP(10), followed by Andhra Pradesh(6), Bihar(6) and Maharashtra(6). Since Rajya Sabha members are elected by the elected members of the Legislative Assembly of the State, a change in the composition of the assembly can affect the election outcome. We used the current assembly compositions to work out scenarios for Rajya Sabha in 2011 and 2012. There could be alliances between parties for the Rajya Sabha elections, so we have estimated a range for each grouping (Scenario I and II) for 2012. See Notes [1] and [2].
| Parties/ Coalitions | 2010 | Scenario 2011 | Scenario 2012 | |
| I | II | |||
| UPA | 89 | 94 | 95 | 97 |
| NDA | 65 | 65 | 67 | 66 |
| Left | 22 | 19 | 14 | 14 |
| BSP | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
| SP | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| AIADMK | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| BJD | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Other parties | 18 | 18 | 20 | 19 |
| Independent | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Nominated | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Total | 241 | 245 | 245 | 245 |
Implications for the election of the President The President is elected in accordance with the provisions of Article 54 and 55 of the Constitution. The electorate consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies. Each MP/ MLA's vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent. The election is held in accordance with the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote. The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. (For details, refer to this Election Commission document). There is no change in the Lok Sabha composition (unless there are bye-elections). Position in Legislative Assemblies After the recent round of assembly elections, the all-India MLA count adds up to:
| UPA | 1613 |
| NDA | 1106 |
| Left | 205 |
| BSP | 246 |
| AIADMK | 155 |
| BJD | 103 |
| SP | 95 |
| Others | 597 |
The above numbers can now be used to estimate the value of votes polled by each coalition. See Note [3]:
| Value of votes cast | Scenario - 1 | Scenario - 2 |
| UPA | 439,437 | 440,853 |
| NDA | 307,737 | 307,029 |
| Left | 51,646 | 51,646 |
| BSP | 77,243 | 77,243 |
| SP | 38,531 | 38,531 |
| AIADMK | 36,392 | 36,392 |
| BJD | 28,799 | 28,799 |
| Others | 119,097 | 118,389 |
| Total | 1,098,882 | 1,098,882 |
| Min. to be elected | 549,442 | 549,442 |
The UPA has the highest value of votes polled but the figure is not sufficient to get its candidate elected. Assuming that there are at most three candidates with significant support (UPA, NDA, and Left/Third Front), the winner will be the one who manages to bridge the gap with second preference votes. On this factor, the UPA backed candidate is likely to hold the edge over others. Notes: [1] At present, there are four vacant seats in Rajya Sabha (1 Maharashtra, 1 TN, 1 WB and 1 Nominated). It is assumed that all these seats are filled up in 2011. [2] Three of the 11 nominated members in the current Rajya Sabha have declared their party affiliation as INC. These have been included in the UPA count in the above analysis. For the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that members who get nominated in 2011/ 12 are not aligned to any party/ coalition. [3] The above analysis is based on the assumption that the next set of assembly elections happen after the Presidential election.
