By Rohit and Jhalak Some Rajya Sabha seats will be contested over the next year. The Presidential elections are also scheduled to be held in 2012. The recent assembly elections has implications for both these elections. The Presidential elections will depend on the strenght in the assemblies, in Lok Sabha and in Rajya Sabha (which could change over the next year). Implications for Rajya Sabha Elections The composition of Rajya Sabha may undergo some changes. A total of 12 Rajya Sabha seats are up for election in 2011. This includes 6 seats from West Bengal, 3 from Gujarat and 1 each from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Another 65 seats, across 18 states, go for elections in early 2012. The largest chunk of these seats comes from UP(10), followed by Andhra Pradesh(6), Bihar(6) and Maharashtra(6). Since Rajya Sabha members are elected by the elected members of the Legislative Assembly of the State, a change in the composition of the assembly can affect the election outcome. We used the current assembly compositions to work out scenarios for Rajya Sabha in 2011 and 2012. There could be alliances between parties for the Rajya Sabha elections, so we have estimated a range for each grouping (Scenario I and II) for 2012. See Notes [1] and [2].
| Parties/ Coalitions | 2010 | Scenario 2011 | Scenario 2012 | |
| I | II | |||
| UPA | 89 | 94 | 95 | 97 |
| NDA | 65 | 65 | 67 | 66 |
| Left | 22 | 19 | 14 | 14 |
| BSP | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
| SP | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| AIADMK | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| BJD | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Other parties | 18 | 18 | 20 | 19 |
| Independent | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Nominated | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Total | 241 | 245 | 245 | 245 |
Implications for the election of the President The President is elected in accordance with the provisions of Article 54 and 55 of the Constitution. The electorate consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies. Each MP/ MLA's vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent. The election is held in accordance with the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote. The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. (For details, refer to this Election Commission document). There is no change in the Lok Sabha composition (unless there are bye-elections). Position in Legislative Assemblies After the recent round of assembly elections, the all-India MLA count adds up to:
| UPA | 1613 |
| NDA | 1106 |
| Left | 205 |
| BSP | 246 |
| AIADMK | 155 |
| BJD | 103 |
| SP | 95 |
| Others | 597 |
The above numbers can now be used to estimate the value of votes polled by each coalition. See Note [3]:
| Value of votes cast | Scenario - 1 | Scenario - 2 |
| UPA | 439,437 | 440,853 |
| NDA | 307,737 | 307,029 |
| Left | 51,646 | 51,646 |
| BSP | 77,243 | 77,243 |
| SP | 38,531 | 38,531 |
| AIADMK | 36,392 | 36,392 |
| BJD | 28,799 | 28,799 |
| Others | 119,097 | 118,389 |
| Total | 1,098,882 | 1,098,882 |
| Min. to be elected | 549,442 | 549,442 |
The UPA has the highest value of votes polled but the figure is not sufficient to get its candidate elected. Assuming that there are at most three candidates with significant support (UPA, NDA, and Left/Third Front), the winner will be the one who manages to bridge the gap with second preference votes. On this factor, the UPA backed candidate is likely to hold the edge over others. Notes: [1] At present, there are four vacant seats in Rajya Sabha (1 Maharashtra, 1 TN, 1 WB and 1 Nominated). It is assumed that all these seats are filled up in 2011. [2] Three of the 11 nominated members in the current Rajya Sabha have declared their party affiliation as INC. These have been included in the UPA count in the above analysis. For the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that members who get nominated in 2011/ 12 are not aligned to any party/ coalition. [3] The above analysis is based on the assumption that the next set of assembly elections happen after the Presidential election.
Recently, the Standing Committee on Health and Family Welfare submitted its report to the Parliament on the National Commission for Human Resource for Health Bill, 2011. The objective of the Bill is to “ensure adequate availability of human resources in the health sector in all states”. It seeks to set up the National Commission for Human Resources for Health (NCHRH), National Board for Health Education (NBHE), and the National Evaluation and Assessment Council (NEAC) in order to determine and regulate standards of health education in the country. It separates regulation of the education sector from that of professions such as law, medicine and nursing, and establishes professional councils at the national and state levels to regulate the professions. See here for PRS Bill Summary. The Standing Committee recommended that this Bill be withdrawn and a revised Bill be introduced in Parliament after consulting stakeholders. It felt that concerns of the professional councils such as the Medical Council of India and the Dental Council of India were not adequately addressed. Also, it noted that the powers and functions of the NCHRH and the National Commission on Higher Education and Research (to be established under the Higher Education and Research Bill, 2011 to regulate the higher education sector in the country) were overlapping in many areas. Finally, it also expressed concern over the acute shortage of qualified health workers in the country as well as variations among states and rural and urban areas. As per the 2001 Census, the estimated density of all health workers (qualified and unqualified) is about 20% less than the World Health Organisation’s norm of 2.5 health workers per 1000 population. See here for PRS Standing Committee Summary. Shortfall of health workers in rural areas Public health care in rural areas is provided through a multi-tier network. At the lowest level, there are sub health-centres for every population of 5,000 in the plains and 3,000 in hilly areas. The next level consists of Primary Health Centres (PHCs) for every population of 30,000 in the plains and 20,000 in the hills. Generally, each PHC caters to a cluster of Gram Panchayats. PHCs are required to have one medical officer and 14 other staff, including one Auxiliary Nurse Midwife (ANM). There are Community Health Centres (CHCs) for every population of 1,20,000 in the plains and 80,000 in hilly areas. These sub health centres, PHCs and CHCs are linked to district hospitals. As on March 2011, there are 14,8124 sub health centres, 23,887 PHCs and 4809 CHCs in the country.[i] Sub-Health Centres and Primary Health Centres
Table 1: State-wise comparison of vacancy in PHCs
|
Doctors at PHCs |
ANM at PHCs and Sub-Centres |
|||||
| State | Sanctioned post | Vacancy | % of vacancy | Sanctioned post | Vacancy | % of vacancy |
| Chhattisgarh | 1482 | 1058 | 71 | 6394 | 964 | 15 |
| West Bengal | 1807 | 801 | 44 | 10,356 | NA | 0 |
| Maharashtra | 3618 | 1326 | 37 | 21,122 | 0 | 0 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 4509 | 1648 | 36 | 25,190 | 2726 | 11 |
| Mizoram | 57 | 20 | 35 | 388 | 0 | 0 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 1238 | 424 | 34 | 11,904 | 0 | 0 |
| Gujarat | 1123 | 345 | 31 | 7248 | 817 | 11 |
| Andaman & Nicobar Isld | 40 | 12 | 30 | 214 | 0 | 0 |
| Odisha | 725 | 200 | 28 | 7442 | 0 | 0 |
| Tamil Nadu | 2326 | 622 | 27 | 9910 | 136 | 1 |
| Himachal Pradesh | 582 | 131 | 22 | 2213 | 528 | 24 |
| Uttarakhand | 299 | 65 | 22 | 2077 | 0 | 0 |
| Manipur | 240 | 48 | 20 | 984 | 323 | 33 |
| Haryana | 651 | 121 | 19 | 5420 | 386 | 7 |
| Sikkim | 48 | 9 | 19 | 219 | 0 | 0 |
| Meghalaya | 127 | 23 | 18 | 667 | 0 | 0 |
| Delhi | 22 | 3 | 14 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
| Goa | 46 | 5 | 11 | 260 | 20 | 8 |
| Karnataka | 2310 | 221 | 10 | 11,180 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerala | 1204 | 82 | 7 | 4232 | 59 | 1 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 2424 | 76 | 3 | 24,523 | 2876 | 12 |
| Rajasthan | 1478 | 6 | 0.4 | 14,348 | 0 | 0 |
| Arunachal Pradesh | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 |
| Assam | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 |
| Bihar | 2078 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | 0 |
| Chandigarh | 0 | 0 | NA | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| Dadra & Nagar Haveli | 6 | 0 | NA | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| Daman & Diu | 3 | 0 | NA | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| Jammu & Kashmir | 750 | 0 | NA | 2282 | 0 | 0 |
| Jharkhand | 330 | 0 | NA | 4288 | 0 | 0 |
| Lakshadweep | 4 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | 0 |
| Nagaland | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 |
| Puducherry | 37 | 0 | NA | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| Punjab | 487 | 0 | NA | 4044 | 0 | 0 |
| Tripura | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 |
| India | 30,051 | 7,246 | 24 | 1,77,103 | 8,835 | 5 |
| Sources: National Rural Health Mission (available here), PRS.Note: The data for all states is as of March 2011 except for some states where data is as of 2010. For doctors, these states are Bihar, UP, Mizoram and Delhi. For ANMs, these states are Odisha and Uttar Pradesh. | ||||||
Community Health Centres
Table 2: Vacancies in CHCs of medical specialists
| Surgeons | Gynaecologists | Physicians | Paediatricians | |
| State |
% of vacancy |
|||
| Andaman & NicobarIsland | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 74 | 0 | 45 | 3 |
| Arunachal Pradesh | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Assam | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Bihar | 41 | 44 | 60 | 38 |
| Chandigarh | 50 | 40 | 50 | 100 |
| Chhattisgarh | 85 | 85 | 90 | 84 |
| Dadra & Nagar Haveli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daman & Diu | 0 | 100 | 0 | 100 |
| Delhi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Goa | 20 | 20 | 67 | 66 |
| Gujarat | 77 | 73 | 0 | 91 |
| Haryana | 71 | 80 | 94 | 85 |
| Himachal Pradesh | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Jammu & Kashmir | 34 | 34 | 53 | 63 |
| Jharkhand | 45 | 0 | 81 | 61 |
| Karnataka | 33 | NA | NA | NA |
| Kerala | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Lakshadweep | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 78 | 69 | 76 | 58 |
| Maharashtra | 21 | 0 | 34 | 0 |
| Manipur | 100 | 94 | 94 | 87 |
| Meghalaya | 50 | NA | 100 | 50 |
| Mizoram | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Nagaland | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Odisha | 44 | 45 | 62 | 41 |
| Puducherry | 0 | 0 | 100 | NA |
| Punjab | 16 | 36 | 40 | 48 |
| Rajasthan | 57% | 46 | 49 | 24 |
| Sikkim | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Tamil Nadu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tripura | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Uttar Pradesh | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Uttarakhand | 69 | 63 | 74 | 40 |
| West Bengal | 0 | 57 | 0 | 78 |
| India | 56 | 47 | 59 | 49 |
| Sources: National Rural Health Mission (available here), PRS. | ||||
[i]. “Rural Healthcare System in India”, National Rural Health Mission (available here).
