The Election Commission has announced the schedule for the election of the President of India. The last date for nominations is June 30, elections will be held on July 19, and counting will take place on July 22. The BJD and AIADMK have proposed the name of Mr. P.A. Sangma. The Samajwadi Party and Trinamool Congress have suggested three names. Other parties or alliances have not announced any contenders. Our calculations show that no single party or alliance has the numbers to unilaterally elect candidates of its choice. A candidate will need 5,48,507 votes to be elected as the President. If the UPA were to vote as a consolidated block, its vote tally would reach 4,49,847 (41% of the total votes). Among the Congress allies, Trinamool holds the largest number of votes (47,898). If Trinamool decides to support some other candidate, the UPA tally will fall to 4,01,949 votes (37% of the total). The votes held by the major alliances are given in the table below:
| Coalition | Value of votes | Percentage of total votes |
| UPA |
4,49,847 |
41.0% |
| NDA |
3,03,912 |
27.7% |
| Left |
52,282 |
4.8% |
| Bahujan Samaj Party |
43,723 |
4.0% |
| Samajwadi Party |
68,943 |
6.3% |
| Biju Janata Dal |
30,215 |
2.8% |
| AIADMK |
36,216 |
3.3% |
| Others |
1,11,874 |
10.2% |
| Total |
10,97,012 |
|
| Minimum required to be elected |
5,48,507 |
|
A detailed break-up of votes held by each party is given in the table below:
| Party | Value of votes | Percentage of total votes |
| Indian National Congress |
3,31,855 |
30.30% |
| Bharatiya Janata Party |
2,32,454 |
21.20% |
| Samajwadi Party |
68,943 |
6.30% |
| All India Trinamool Congress |
47,898 |
4.40% |
| Bahujan Samaj Party |
43,723 |
4.00% |
| Janata Dal (United) |
41,574 |
3.80% |
| All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) |
36,216 |
3.30% |
| Communist Party of India (Marxist) |
35,734 |
3.30% |
| Biju Janata Dal |
30,215 |
2.80% |
| Nationalist Congress Party |
24,058 |
2.20% |
| Independent |
23,830 |
2.20% |
| Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) |
21,780 |
2.00% |
| Telugu Desam Party |
21,256 |
1.90% |
| Shiv Sena |
18,320 |
1.70% |
| Shiromani Akali Dal |
11,564 |
1.10% |
| Communist Party of India |
9,758 |
0.90% |
| Rashtriya Janata Dal |
8,816 |
0.80% |
| Others |
7,420 |
0.70% |
| Janata Dal (Secular) |
6,138 |
0.60% |
| Jammu and Kashmir National Conference |
5,556 |
0.50% |
| Rashtriya Lok Dal |
5,412 |
0.50% |
| Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhaga (DMDK) |
5,104 |
0.50% |
| Jharkhand Mukti Morcha |
4,584 |
0.40% |
| Muslim League Kerala State Committee |
4,456 |
0.40% |
| Indian National Lok Dal |
4,068 |
0.40% |
| All India Forward Bloc |
3,961 |
0.40% |
| Jharkhand Vikas Morcha |
3,352 |
0.30% |
| Asom Gana Parishad |
3,284 |
0.30% |
| Telangana Rashtra Samiti |
3,044 |
0.30% |
| Revolutionary Socialist Party |
2,829 |
0.30% |
| Bodoland People's Front |
2,808 |
0.30% |
| All India United Democratic Front |
2,796 |
0.30% |
| Praja Rajyam Party |
2,664 |
0.20% |
| Maharashtra Navnirman Sena |
2,275 |
0.20% |
| Kerala Congress (M) |
2,076 |
0.20% |
| All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen |
1,744 |
0.20% |
| Nagaland People's Front |
1,722 |
0.20% |
| Sikkim Democratic Front |
1,640 |
0.10% |
| Peoples Democratic Party |
1,512 |
0.10% |
| Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi |
1,058 |
0.10% |
| Lok Janasakti Party |
957 |
0.10% |
| All Jharkhand Students Union |
880 |
0.10% |
| Haryana Janhit Congress |
820 |
0.10% |
| Mizo National Front |
732 |
0.10% |
| Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam |
708 |
0.10% |
| Swabhimani Paksha |
708 |
0.10% |
| Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi |
708 |
0.10% |
| YSR Congress Party |
708 |
0.10% |
| Peasants and Workers Party |
700 |
0.10% |
| Pattali Makkal Katchi |
528 |
0.00% |
| Manithaneya Makkal Katch |
352 |
0.00% |
| Puthiya Tamilaga |
352 |
0.00% |
| All India NR Congress |
240 |
0.00% |
| J&K National Panthers Party |
216 |
0.00% |
| Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) |
176 |
0.00% |
| United Democratic Party |
153 |
0.00% |
| Lok Satta Party |
148 |
0.00% |
| Loktantrik Samajwadi Party |
129 |
0.00% |
| J&K Democratic Party Nationalist |
72 |
0.00% |
| People's Democratic Front |
72 |
0.00% |
| Uttarakhand Kranti Dal |
64 |
0.00% |
| Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party |
60 |
0.00% |
| People's Party of Arunachal |
32 |
0.00% |
| Total |
10,97,012 |
|
Notes: The electoral college for the Presidential election consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies. The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. Each MP/ MLA’s vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent. For instance, an MP’s vote has a value of 708, an MLA from UP has a vote value of 208 and an MLA from Sikkim has a vote value of 7 (Note that all MPs, irrespective of the constituency or State they represent, have equal vote value). Parties in various coalitions: UPA: Congress, Trinamool, DMK, NCP,Rashtriya Lok Dal, J&K National Conference, Muslim League Kerala State Committee, Kerala Congress (M), All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Sikkim Democratic Front, Praja Rajyam Party, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi NDA: BJP, JD(U), Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal, Janata Party Left: CPI(M), CPI, Revolutionary Socialist Party, All India Forward Bloc
By Rohit and Jhalak Some Rajya Sabha seats will be contested over the next year. The Presidential elections are also scheduled to be held in 2012. The recent assembly elections has implications for both these elections. The Presidential elections will depend on the strenght in the assemblies, in Lok Sabha and in Rajya Sabha (which could change over the next year). Implications for Rajya Sabha Elections The composition of Rajya Sabha may undergo some changes. A total of 12 Rajya Sabha seats are up for election in 2011. This includes 6 seats from West Bengal, 3 from Gujarat and 1 each from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Another 65 seats, across 18 states, go for elections in early 2012. The largest chunk of these seats comes from UP(10), followed by Andhra Pradesh(6), Bihar(6) and Maharashtra(6). Since Rajya Sabha members are elected by the elected members of the Legislative Assembly of the State, a change in the composition of the assembly can affect the election outcome. We used the current assembly compositions to work out scenarios for Rajya Sabha in 2011 and 2012. There could be alliances between parties for the Rajya Sabha elections, so we have estimated a range for each grouping (Scenario I and II) for 2012. See Notes [1] and [2].
| Parties/ Coalitions | 2010 | Scenario 2011 | Scenario 2012 | |
| I | II | |||
| UPA | 89 | 94 | 95 | 97 |
| NDA | 65 | 65 | 67 | 66 |
| Left | 22 | 19 | 14 | 14 |
| BSP | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
| SP | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| AIADMK | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| BJD | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Other parties | 18 | 18 | 20 | 19 |
| Independent | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Nominated | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Total | 241 | 245 | 245 | 245 |
Implications for the election of the President The President is elected in accordance with the provisions of Article 54 and 55 of the Constitution. The electorate consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies. Each MP/ MLA's vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent. The election is held in accordance with the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote. The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. (For details, refer to this Election Commission document). There is no change in the Lok Sabha composition (unless there are bye-elections). Position in Legislative Assemblies After the recent round of assembly elections, the all-India MLA count adds up to:
| UPA | 1613 |
| NDA | 1106 |
| Left | 205 |
| BSP | 246 |
| AIADMK | 155 |
| BJD | 103 |
| SP | 95 |
| Others | 597 |
The above numbers can now be used to estimate the value of votes polled by each coalition. See Note [3]:
| Value of votes cast | Scenario - 1 | Scenario - 2 |
| UPA | 439,437 | 440,853 |
| NDA | 307,737 | 307,029 |
| Left | 51,646 | 51,646 |
| BSP | 77,243 | 77,243 |
| SP | 38,531 | 38,531 |
| AIADMK | 36,392 | 36,392 |
| BJD | 28,799 | 28,799 |
| Others | 119,097 | 118,389 |
| Total | 1,098,882 | 1,098,882 |
| Min. to be elected | 549,442 | 549,442 |
The UPA has the highest value of votes polled but the figure is not sufficient to get its candidate elected. Assuming that there are at most three candidates with significant support (UPA, NDA, and Left/Third Front), the winner will be the one who manages to bridge the gap with second preference votes. On this factor, the UPA backed candidate is likely to hold the edge over others. Notes: [1] At present, there are four vacant seats in Rajya Sabha (1 Maharashtra, 1 TN, 1 WB and 1 Nominated). It is assumed that all these seats are filled up in 2011. [2] Three of the 11 nominated members in the current Rajya Sabha have declared their party affiliation as INC. These have been included in the UPA count in the above analysis. For the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that members who get nominated in 2011/ 12 are not aligned to any party/ coalition. [3] The above analysis is based on the assumption that the next set of assembly elections happen after the Presidential election.
