The Election Commission has announced the schedule for the election of the President of India. The last date for nominations is June 30, elections will be held on July 19, and counting will take place on July 22. The BJD and AIADMK have proposed the name of Mr. P.A. Sangma. The Samajwadi Party and Trinamool Congress have suggested three names. Other parties or alliances have not announced any contenders. Our calculations show that no single party or alliance has the numbers to unilaterally elect candidates of its choice. A candidate will need 5,48,507 votes to be elected as the President. If the UPA were to vote as a consolidated block, its vote tally would reach 4,49,847 (41% of the total votes). Among the Congress allies, Trinamool holds the largest number of votes (47,898). If Trinamool decides to support some other candidate, the UPA tally will fall to 4,01,949 votes (37% of the total). The votes held by the major alliances are given in the table below:
| Coalition | Value of votes | Percentage of total votes |
| UPA |
4,49,847 |
41.0% |
| NDA |
3,03,912 |
27.7% |
| Left |
52,282 |
4.8% |
| Bahujan Samaj Party |
43,723 |
4.0% |
| Samajwadi Party |
68,943 |
6.3% |
| Biju Janata Dal |
30,215 |
2.8% |
| AIADMK |
36,216 |
3.3% |
| Others |
1,11,874 |
10.2% |
| Total |
10,97,012 |
|
| Minimum required to be elected |
5,48,507 |
|
A detailed break-up of votes held by each party is given in the table below:
| Party | Value of votes | Percentage of total votes |
| Indian National Congress |
3,31,855 |
30.30% |
| Bharatiya Janata Party |
2,32,454 |
21.20% |
| Samajwadi Party |
68,943 |
6.30% |
| All India Trinamool Congress |
47,898 |
4.40% |
| Bahujan Samaj Party |
43,723 |
4.00% |
| Janata Dal (United) |
41,574 |
3.80% |
| All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) |
36,216 |
3.30% |
| Communist Party of India (Marxist) |
35,734 |
3.30% |
| Biju Janata Dal |
30,215 |
2.80% |
| Nationalist Congress Party |
24,058 |
2.20% |
| Independent |
23,830 |
2.20% |
| Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) |
21,780 |
2.00% |
| Telugu Desam Party |
21,256 |
1.90% |
| Shiv Sena |
18,320 |
1.70% |
| Shiromani Akali Dal |
11,564 |
1.10% |
| Communist Party of India |
9,758 |
0.90% |
| Rashtriya Janata Dal |
8,816 |
0.80% |
| Others |
7,420 |
0.70% |
| Janata Dal (Secular) |
6,138 |
0.60% |
| Jammu and Kashmir National Conference |
5,556 |
0.50% |
| Rashtriya Lok Dal |
5,412 |
0.50% |
| Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhaga (DMDK) |
5,104 |
0.50% |
| Jharkhand Mukti Morcha |
4,584 |
0.40% |
| Muslim League Kerala State Committee |
4,456 |
0.40% |
| Indian National Lok Dal |
4,068 |
0.40% |
| All India Forward Bloc |
3,961 |
0.40% |
| Jharkhand Vikas Morcha |
3,352 |
0.30% |
| Asom Gana Parishad |
3,284 |
0.30% |
| Telangana Rashtra Samiti |
3,044 |
0.30% |
| Revolutionary Socialist Party |
2,829 |
0.30% |
| Bodoland People's Front |
2,808 |
0.30% |
| All India United Democratic Front |
2,796 |
0.30% |
| Praja Rajyam Party |
2,664 |
0.20% |
| Maharashtra Navnirman Sena |
2,275 |
0.20% |
| Kerala Congress (M) |
2,076 |
0.20% |
| All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen |
1,744 |
0.20% |
| Nagaland People's Front |
1,722 |
0.20% |
| Sikkim Democratic Front |
1,640 |
0.10% |
| Peoples Democratic Party |
1,512 |
0.10% |
| Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi |
1,058 |
0.10% |
| Lok Janasakti Party |
957 |
0.10% |
| All Jharkhand Students Union |
880 |
0.10% |
| Haryana Janhit Congress |
820 |
0.10% |
| Mizo National Front |
732 |
0.10% |
| Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam |
708 |
0.10% |
| Swabhimani Paksha |
708 |
0.10% |
| Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi |
708 |
0.10% |
| YSR Congress Party |
708 |
0.10% |
| Peasants and Workers Party |
700 |
0.10% |
| Pattali Makkal Katchi |
528 |
0.00% |
| Manithaneya Makkal Katch |
352 |
0.00% |
| Puthiya Tamilaga |
352 |
0.00% |
| All India NR Congress |
240 |
0.00% |
| J&K National Panthers Party |
216 |
0.00% |
| Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) |
176 |
0.00% |
| United Democratic Party |
153 |
0.00% |
| Lok Satta Party |
148 |
0.00% |
| Loktantrik Samajwadi Party |
129 |
0.00% |
| J&K Democratic Party Nationalist |
72 |
0.00% |
| People's Democratic Front |
72 |
0.00% |
| Uttarakhand Kranti Dal |
64 |
0.00% |
| Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party |
60 |
0.00% |
| People's Party of Arunachal |
32 |
0.00% |
| Total |
10,97,012 |
|
Notes: The electoral college for the Presidential election consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies. The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. Each MP/ MLA’s vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent. For instance, an MP’s vote has a value of 708, an MLA from UP has a vote value of 208 and an MLA from Sikkim has a vote value of 7 (Note that all MPs, irrespective of the constituency or State they represent, have equal vote value). Parties in various coalitions: UPA: Congress, Trinamool, DMK, NCP,Rashtriya Lok Dal, J&K National Conference, Muslim League Kerala State Committee, Kerala Congress (M), All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Sikkim Democratic Front, Praja Rajyam Party, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi NDA: BJP, JD(U), Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal, Janata Party Left: CPI(M), CPI, Revolutionary Socialist Party, All India Forward Bloc
Over the last few days, the retail prices of petrol and diesel have touched an all-time high. In Delhi, petrol was selling at 74.6/litre on April 25, 2018, while diesel was at 66/litre.
Petroleum products are used as raw materials in various sectors and industries such as transport and petrochemicals. These products may also be used in factories to operate machinery or generators. Any fluctuation in the price of petrol and diesel impacts the production and transport costs of various items. When compared to other neighbouring countries, India has the highest prices for petrol and diesel.
Note: Prices as on April 1, 2018. Prices for India pertain to Delhi.
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; PRS.
How is the price of petrol and diesel fixed?
Historically, the price of petrol and diesel in India was regulated, i.e. the government was involved in the deciding the retail price. The government deregulated the pricing of petrol in 2010 and diesel in 2014. This allowed oil marketing companies to determine the price of these products, and revise them every fortnight.
Starting June 16, 2017, prices for petrol and diesel are revised on a daily basis. This was done to with the idea that daily revision will reduce the volatility in retail prices, and protect the consumer against sharp fluctuations. The break-up of retail prices of petrol and diesel in Delhi on April 25, 2018 can be found below. As seen in the table, over 50% of the retail price of petrol comprises central and states taxes and the dealer’s commission. In case of diesel, this amount is close to 40%.
Table 1: Break-up of petrol and diesel prices in Delhi (on April 25, 2018)
|
Component |
Petrol |
Diesel |
||
| Rs/litre | % of retail price | Rs/litre |
% of retail price |
|
| Price Charged to Dealers | 35.7 | 48% | 38.4 | 58% |
| Excise Duty (levied by centre) | 19.5 | 26% | 15.3 | 23% |
| Dealer Commission | 3.6 | 5% | 2.5 | 4% |
| VAT (levied by state) | 15.9 | 21% | 9.7 | 15% |
| Retail Price | 74.6 | 100% | 65.9 | 100% |
Does India produce enough petroleum to support domestic consumption?
India imports 84% of the petroleum products consumed in the country. This implies that any change in the global prices of crude oil has a significant impact on the domestic price of petroleum products. In 2000-01, net import of petroleum products constituted 75% of the total consumption in the country. This increased to 95% in 2016-17. The figure below shows the amount of petroleum products consumed in the country, and the share of imports.
Note: Production is the difference between the total consumption in the country and the net imports.
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell; PRS.
What has been the global trend in crude oil prices? How has this impacted prices in India?
Over the last five years, the global price of crude oil (Indian basket) has come down from USD 110 in January 2013 to USD 64 in March 2018, having touched a low of USD 28 in January 2016.
While there has been a 42% drop in the price of global crude over this five-period, the retail price of petrol in India has increased by 8%. During this period, the retail price of diesel increased by 33%. The two figures below show the trend in prices of global crude oil and retail price of petrol and diesel in India, over the last five years.
How has the excise duty on petrol and diesel changed over the last few years?
Under the Constitution, the central government has the powers to tax the production of petroleum products, while states have the power to tax their sale. Petroleum has been kept outside the purview of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), till the GST Council decides.
Over the years, the central government has used taxes to prevent sharp fluctuations in the retail price of diesel and petrol. In the past, when global crude oil prices have increased, duties have been cut. Since 2014, as global crude oil prices declined, excise duties have been increased.
Sources: Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell; PRS.
As a consequence of the increase in duties, the central government’s revenue from excise on petrol and diesel increased annually at a rate of 46% between 2013-14 and 2016-17. During the same period, the total sales tax collections of states (from petrol and diesel) increased annually by 9%. The figure below shows the trend in overall collections of the central and state governments from petroleum (including receipts from taxes, royalties, and dividends).
Notes: Data includes tax collections (from cesses, royalties, customs duty, central excise duty, state sales tax, octroi, and entry tax, among others), dividends paid to the government, and profit on oil exploration.
Data sources: Petroleum and Planning Analysis Cell; Central Board of Excise and Customs; Indian Oil Corporation Limited; PRS.
