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Elections to the 14th Legislative Assembly of Karnataka are scheduled to be held on May 5, 2013. Of the 224 assembly constituencies that will go into polls, 36 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 15 for Scheduled Tribes. Voting will take place in 50,446 polling stations across Karnataka [1. Election Commission India]. In this blog, we analyse electoral trends between 1989 and 2008 and the performance of the current Karnataka Assembly.
Figure 1: Electoral trends since 1989, source: Election Commission of India, PRS.
In the last elections, held in 2008, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) formed the government, winning 110 of the 226 seats in the Assembly. The BJP has steadily increased its seat share since 1989: it won four seats in 1989, 44 in 1999 and 79 in 2004. The Indian National Congress (INC) had a 179 seat majority in 1989 (79% of the assembly) which fell to 34 seats in 1994. The INC subsequently increased their tally from 65 seats in 2004 to 80 seats in 2008. However, the INC continued to have the highest share of votes polled (except in 1994) even as its share of seats decreased. The 1990s also saw the emergence of the Janata Dal (S) who won the 1994 elections with 115 seats. Janata Dal’s emergence is part of a broader theme of increased participation by regional parties in Karnataka. In 1989, 20 parties contested the elections, seven of which were national parties but in 2008, 30 parties contested, of which only five were national parties. Performance of the current Assembly As we approach the end of the term of the current Assembly, a brief look at its work from 2008 to 2013:
The Lokpal and Lokayuktas Bill, 2011 was passed by Lok Sabha yesterday. The Bill will be discussed next by Rajya Sabha. Unlike the Lok Sabha, where the UPA government holds a majority in the House, the composition is different in Rajya Sabha. As on 28th December 2011, the total strength of Rajya Sabha is 243 members . The UPA has a combined strength of 95 members in the House, well below the 50% mark. (Of course, there will be some absent members which will change the arithmetic a bit.) The passage of the Bill thus depends on the stand taken by other political parties and their numbers in the House. Here's how the figures stack up:
Party | Numbers |
Indian National Congress (INC) | 71 |
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) | 7 |
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) | 7 |
All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) | 6 |
Jammu and Kashmir National Conference | 2 |
Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) | 1 |
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) | 1 |
Total UPA | 95 |
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) | 51 |
Janata Dal (United) | 8 |
Shiv Sena (SS) | 4 |
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) | 3 |
Total NDA | 66 |
Communist Party of India (Marxist) | 13 |
Communist Party of India (CPI) | 5 |
All India Forward Bloc (AIFB) | 1 |
Total Left | 19 |
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP ) | 18 |
Biju Janata Dal (BJD ) | 6 |
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK ) | 5 |
Samajwadi Party (SP ) | 5 |
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD ) | 4 |
Asom Gana Parishad (AGP ) | 2 |
Bodoland People's Front (BPF ) | 1 |
Indian National Lok Dal (INLD ) | 1 |
Lok Janasakti Party (LJP ) | 1 |
Mizo National Front (MNF ) | 1 |
Nagaland People's Front (NPF ) | 1 |
Telugu Desam Party (TDP ) | 4 |
Nominated | 8 |
Independent and others | 6 |
Total | 243 |