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Elections to the 14th Legislative Assembly of Karnataka are scheduled to be held on May 5, 2013. Of the 224 assembly constituencies that will go into polls, 36 are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 15 for Scheduled Tribes. Voting will take place in 50,446 polling stations across Karnataka [1. Election Commission India]. In this blog, we analyse electoral trends between 1989 and 2008 and the performance of the current Karnataka Assembly.
Figure 1: Electoral trends since 1989, source: Election Commission of India, PRS.
In the last elections, held in 2008, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) formed the government, winning 110 of the 226 seats in the Assembly. The BJP has steadily increased its seat share since 1989: it won four seats in 1989, 44 in 1999 and 79 in 2004. The Indian National Congress (INC) had a 179 seat majority in 1989 (79% of the assembly) which fell to 34 seats in 1994. The INC subsequently increased their tally from 65 seats in 2004 to 80 seats in 2008. However, the INC continued to have the highest share of votes polled (except in 1994) even as its share of seats decreased. The 1990s also saw the emergence of the Janata Dal (S) who won the 1994 elections with 115 seats. Janata Dal’s emergence is part of a broader theme of increased participation by regional parties in Karnataka. In 1989, 20 parties contested the elections, seven of which were national parties but in 2008, 30 parties contested, of which only five were national parties. Performance of the current Assembly As we approach the end of the term of the current Assembly, a brief look at its work from 2008 to 2013:
The Election Commission has announced the schedule for the election of the President of India. The last date for nominations is June 30, elections will be held on July 19, and counting will take place on July 22. The BJD and AIADMK have proposed the name of Mr. P.A. Sangma. The Samajwadi Party and Trinamool Congress have suggested three names. Other parties or alliances have not announced any contenders. Our calculations show that no single party or alliance has the numbers to unilaterally elect candidates of its choice. A candidate will need 5,48,507 votes to be elected as the President. If the UPA were to vote as a consolidated block, its vote tally would reach 4,49,847 (41% of the total votes). Among the Congress allies, Trinamool holds the largest number of votes (47,898). If Trinamool decides to support some other candidate, the UPA tally will fall to 4,01,949 votes (37% of the total). The votes held by the major alliances are given in the table below:
Coalition | Value of votes | Percentage of total votes |
UPA |
4,49,847 |
41.0% |
NDA |
3,03,912 |
27.7% |
Left |
52,282 |
4.8% |
Bahujan Samaj Party |
43,723 |
4.0% |
Samajwadi Party |
68,943 |
6.3% |
Biju Janata Dal |
30,215 |
2.8% |
AIADMK |
36,216 |
3.3% |
Others |
1,11,874 |
10.2% |
Total |
10,97,012 |
|
Minimum required to be elected |
5,48,507 |
|
A detailed break-up of votes held by each party is given in the table below:
Party | Value of votes | Percentage of total votes |
Indian National Congress |
3,31,855 |
30.30% |
Bharatiya Janata Party |
2,32,454 |
21.20% |
Samajwadi Party |
68,943 |
6.30% |
All India Trinamool Congress |
47,898 |
4.40% |
Bahujan Samaj Party |
43,723 |
4.00% |
Janata Dal (United) |
41,574 |
3.80% |
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) |
36,216 |
3.30% |
Communist Party of India (Marxist) |
35,734 |
3.30% |
Biju Janata Dal |
30,215 |
2.80% |
Nationalist Congress Party |
24,058 |
2.20% |
Independent |
23,830 |
2.20% |
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) |
21,780 |
2.00% |
Telugu Desam Party |
21,256 |
1.90% |
Shiv Sena |
18,320 |
1.70% |
Shiromani Akali Dal |
11,564 |
1.10% |
Communist Party of India |
9,758 |
0.90% |
Rashtriya Janata Dal |
8,816 |
0.80% |
Others |
7,420 |
0.70% |
Janata Dal (Secular) |
6,138 |
0.60% |
Jammu and Kashmir National Conference |
5,556 |
0.50% |
Rashtriya Lok Dal |
5,412 |
0.50% |
Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhaga (DMDK) |
5,104 |
0.50% |
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha |
4,584 |
0.40% |
Muslim League Kerala State Committee |
4,456 |
0.40% |
Indian National Lok Dal |
4,068 |
0.40% |
All India Forward Bloc |
3,961 |
0.40% |
Jharkhand Vikas Morcha |
3,352 |
0.30% |
Asom Gana Parishad |
3,284 |
0.30% |
Telangana Rashtra Samiti |
3,044 |
0.30% |
Revolutionary Socialist Party |
2,829 |
0.30% |
Bodoland People's Front |
2,808 |
0.30% |
All India United Democratic Front |
2,796 |
0.30% |
Praja Rajyam Party |
2,664 |
0.20% |
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena |
2,275 |
0.20% |
Kerala Congress (M) |
2,076 |
0.20% |
All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen |
1,744 |
0.20% |
Nagaland People's Front |
1,722 |
0.20% |
Sikkim Democratic Front |
1,640 |
0.10% |
Peoples Democratic Party |
1,512 |
0.10% |
Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi |
1,058 |
0.10% |
Lok Janasakti Party |
957 |
0.10% |
All Jharkhand Students Union |
880 |
0.10% |
Haryana Janhit Congress |
820 |
0.10% |
Mizo National Front |
732 |
0.10% |
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam |
708 |
0.10% |
Swabhimani Paksha |
708 |
0.10% |
Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi |
708 |
0.10% |
YSR Congress Party |
708 |
0.10% |
Peasants and Workers Party |
700 |
0.10% |
Pattali Makkal Katchi |
528 |
0.00% |
Manithaneya Makkal Katch |
352 |
0.00% |
Puthiya Tamilaga |
352 |
0.00% |
All India NR Congress |
240 |
0.00% |
J&K National Panthers Party |
216 |
0.00% |
Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) |
176 |
0.00% |
United Democratic Party |
153 |
0.00% |
Lok Satta Party |
148 |
0.00% |
Loktantrik Samajwadi Party |
129 |
0.00% |
J&K Democratic Party Nationalist |
72 |
0.00% |
People's Democratic Front |
72 |
0.00% |
Uttarakhand Kranti Dal |
64 |
0.00% |
Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party |
60 |
0.00% |
People's Party of Arunachal |
32 |
0.00% |
Total |
10,97,012 |
|
Notes: The electoral college for the Presidential election consists of the elected members of Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and all Legislative Assemblies. The winning candidate must secure at least 50% of the total value of votes polled. Each MP/ MLA’s vote has a pre-determined value based on the population they represent. For instance, an MP’s vote has a value of 708, an MLA from UP has a vote value of 208 and an MLA from Sikkim has a vote value of 7 (Note that all MPs, irrespective of the constituency or State they represent, have equal vote value). Parties in various coalitions: UPA: Congress, Trinamool, DMK, NCP,Rashtriya Lok Dal, J&K National Conference, Muslim League Kerala State Committee, Kerala Congress (M), All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Sikkim Democratic Front, Praja Rajyam Party, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi NDA: BJP, JD(U), Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal, Janata Party Left: CPI(M), CPI, Revolutionary Socialist Party, All India Forward Bloc