Over the next few weeks, Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in five States – Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa. As parties prepare for the upcoming elections, we take a look at the electoral trends in these states over the past 25 years. We see that electoral fortunes in some states have fluctuated widely. The electoral mandate in UP has varied over the last 25 years. Five different parties -- Congress, Janata Dal, BJP, SP and BSP have been the single largest party in the Assembly at some point in time. In Punjab, the Akalis and the Congress have alternately controlled the government. In Uttarakhand, the 2007 elections saw the BJP take over control from the Congress. In Manipur and Goa, Congress has been dominant player in elections. In both states, it emerged as the single largest party in all but one election since 1984. In Manipur, the Congress lost this status to the Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP), a splinter group of the Congress in 2000. In Goa, it lost this status to BJP in 2002. The results of Uttar Pradesh elections will have the highest impact on national politics. The state has 80 out of 543 elected seats in Lok Sabha and 31 out of 231 elected seats in Rajya Sabha. The results could give an indication of the prospects for these parties in the next general elections, and may also change the composition of Rajya Sabha over the next few years. Given that there are five parties (BSP, SP, BJP, Congress and RLD) with a significant base in the state, the possibilities of post poll arrangements are also wide open. For more details, see our Vital Stats.
Recently, the Standing Committee on Health and Family Welfare submitted its report to the Parliament on the National Commission for Human Resource for Health Bill, 2011. The objective of the Bill is to “ensure adequate availability of human resources in the health sector in all states”. It seeks to set up the National Commission for Human Resources for Health (NCHRH), National Board for Health Education (NBHE), and the National Evaluation and Assessment Council (NEAC) in order to determine and regulate standards of health education in the country. It separates regulation of the education sector from that of professions such as law, medicine and nursing, and establishes professional councils at the national and state levels to regulate the professions. See here for PRS Bill Summary. The Standing Committee recommended that this Bill be withdrawn and a revised Bill be introduced in Parliament after consulting stakeholders. It felt that concerns of the professional councils such as the Medical Council of India and the Dental Council of India were not adequately addressed. Also, it noted that the powers and functions of the NCHRH and the National Commission on Higher Education and Research (to be established under the Higher Education and Research Bill, 2011 to regulate the higher education sector in the country) were overlapping in many areas. Finally, it also expressed concern over the acute shortage of qualified health workers in the country as well as variations among states and rural and urban areas. As per the 2001 Census, the estimated density of all health workers (qualified and unqualified) is about 20% less than the World Health Organisation’s norm of 2.5 health workers per 1000 population. See here for PRS Standing Committee Summary. Shortfall of health workers in rural areas Public health care in rural areas is provided through a multi-tier network. At the lowest level, there are sub health-centres for every population of 5,000 in the plains and 3,000 in hilly areas. The next level consists of Primary Health Centres (PHCs) for every population of 30,000 in the plains and 20,000 in the hills. Generally, each PHC caters to a cluster of Gram Panchayats. PHCs are required to have one medical officer and 14 other staff, including one Auxiliary Nurse Midwife (ANM). There are Community Health Centres (CHCs) for every population of 1,20,000 in the plains and 80,000 in hilly areas. These sub health centres, PHCs and CHCs are linked to district hospitals. As on March 2011, there are 14,8124 sub health centres, 23,887 PHCs and 4809 CHCs in the country.[i] Sub-Health Centres and Primary Health Centres
Table 1: State-wise comparison of vacancy in PHCs
|
Doctors at PHCs |
ANM at PHCs and Sub-Centres |
|||||
| State | Sanctioned post | Vacancy | % of vacancy | Sanctioned post | Vacancy | % of vacancy |
| Chhattisgarh | 1482 | 1058 | 71 | 6394 | 964 | 15 |
| West Bengal | 1807 | 801 | 44 | 10,356 | NA | 0 |
| Maharashtra | 3618 | 1326 | 37 | 21,122 | 0 | 0 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 4509 | 1648 | 36 | 25,190 | 2726 | 11 |
| Mizoram | 57 | 20 | 35 | 388 | 0 | 0 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 1238 | 424 | 34 | 11,904 | 0 | 0 |
| Gujarat | 1123 | 345 | 31 | 7248 | 817 | 11 |
| Andaman & Nicobar Isld | 40 | 12 | 30 | 214 | 0 | 0 |
| Odisha | 725 | 200 | 28 | 7442 | 0 | 0 |
| Tamil Nadu | 2326 | 622 | 27 | 9910 | 136 | 1 |
| Himachal Pradesh | 582 | 131 | 22 | 2213 | 528 | 24 |
| Uttarakhand | 299 | 65 | 22 | 2077 | 0 | 0 |
| Manipur | 240 | 48 | 20 | 984 | 323 | 33 |
| Haryana | 651 | 121 | 19 | 5420 | 386 | 7 |
| Sikkim | 48 | 9 | 19 | 219 | 0 | 0 |
| Meghalaya | 127 | 23 | 18 | 667 | 0 | 0 |
| Delhi | 22 | 3 | 14 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
| Goa | 46 | 5 | 11 | 260 | 20 | 8 |
| Karnataka | 2310 | 221 | 10 | 11,180 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerala | 1204 | 82 | 7 | 4232 | 59 | 1 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 2424 | 76 | 3 | 24,523 | 2876 | 12 |
| Rajasthan | 1478 | 6 | 0.4 | 14,348 | 0 | 0 |
| Arunachal Pradesh | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 |
| Assam | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 |
| Bihar | 2078 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | 0 |
| Chandigarh | 0 | 0 | NA | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| Dadra & Nagar Haveli | 6 | 0 | NA | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| Daman & Diu | 3 | 0 | NA | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| Jammu & Kashmir | 750 | 0 | NA | 2282 | 0 | 0 |
| Jharkhand | 330 | 0 | NA | 4288 | 0 | 0 |
| Lakshadweep | 4 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | 0 |
| Nagaland | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 |
| Puducherry | 37 | 0 | NA | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| Punjab | 487 | 0 | NA | 4044 | 0 | 0 |
| Tripura | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0 |
| India | 30,051 | 7,246 | 24 | 1,77,103 | 8,835 | 5 |
| Sources: National Rural Health Mission (available here), PRS.Note: The data for all states is as of March 2011 except for some states where data is as of 2010. For doctors, these states are Bihar, UP, Mizoram and Delhi. For ANMs, these states are Odisha and Uttar Pradesh. | ||||||
Community Health Centres
Table 2: Vacancies in CHCs of medical specialists
| Surgeons | Gynaecologists | Physicians | Paediatricians | |
| State |
% of vacancy |
|||
| Andaman & NicobarIsland | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 74 | 0 | 45 | 3 |
| Arunachal Pradesh | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Assam | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Bihar | 41 | 44 | 60 | 38 |
| Chandigarh | 50 | 40 | 50 | 100 |
| Chhattisgarh | 85 | 85 | 90 | 84 |
| Dadra & Nagar Haveli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daman & Diu | 0 | 100 | 0 | 100 |
| Delhi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Goa | 20 | 20 | 67 | 66 |
| Gujarat | 77 | 73 | 0 | 91 |
| Haryana | 71 | 80 | 94 | 85 |
| Himachal Pradesh | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Jammu & Kashmir | 34 | 34 | 53 | 63 |
| Jharkhand | 45 | 0 | 81 | 61 |
| Karnataka | 33 | NA | NA | NA |
| Kerala | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Lakshadweep | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 78 | 69 | 76 | 58 |
| Maharashtra | 21 | 0 | 34 | 0 |
| Manipur | 100 | 94 | 94 | 87 |
| Meghalaya | 50 | NA | 100 | 50 |
| Mizoram | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Nagaland | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Odisha | 44 | 45 | 62 | 41 |
| Puducherry | 0 | 0 | 100 | NA |
| Punjab | 16 | 36 | 40 | 48 |
| Rajasthan | 57% | 46 | 49 | 24 |
| Sikkim | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Tamil Nadu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tripura | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Uttar Pradesh | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Uttarakhand | 69 | 63 | 74 | 40 |
| West Bengal | 0 | 57 | 0 | 78 |
| India | 56 | 47 | 59 | 49 |
| Sources: National Rural Health Mission (available here), PRS. | ||||
[i]. “Rural Healthcare System in India”, National Rural Health Mission (available here).
